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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,251 · March 31, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index marked 76 at the close. In the index composition, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state74/100Today ▾ -26
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite78/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (74) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day127,331 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,407 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2019
    Ibovespa 118,573 → 98,937 pts (-17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 71 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 70% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 20% · median -0.9%
  • 6M: higher 40% · median -1.5%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +6.8%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-08, 2023-08, 2016-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2013Perene 74 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2012Perene 74 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2009Perene 74
  4. March 31, 2011Perene 74 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2011Perene 73 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2006Perene 75
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -1.5% over six months, with 40% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 130,260 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,251 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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