Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,642 · September 19, 2014 · reconstructed essentials

The market returned to an extreme, now capitulation territory. The index reads 0 — capitulation territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2013
    Ibovespa that day53,506 pts
    the archive suggested+0% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months51,847 pts (-3%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2013 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2009
    Ibovespa 61,518 → 71,417 pts (+16% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 34 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +0.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  2. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  4. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2021Perene 0 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2020Perene 0 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 57,789 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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