Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,793 · May 4, 2015 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an appetite extreme. The Perene Index marked 100 at the close.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoMarch 31, 2014
Ibovespa that day50,415 pts
the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months52,858 pts (+5%)
Reread the edition of March 31, 2014 →
○Five years agoJuly 2010
Ibovespa 68,517 → 66,765 pts (-3% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 34 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 57,354 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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