Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,802 · May 15, 2015 · reconstructed essentials

The Perene Index rose to the high end of the scale, now at 94. The scene holds at an appetite extreme.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▲ +34
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2014
    Ibovespa that day50,415 pts
    the archive suggested-9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months52,858 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2010
    Ibovespa 68,517 → 66,765 pts (-3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2021Perene 94 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
  3. November 30, 2013Perene 94 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2003Perene 94
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 57,249 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2015-04-30all editions · Atlas2015-05-31 · next edition →