Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,845 · July 17, 2015 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index gave back ground and closed at 9. The scene holds at a defensive extreme.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state9/100Today ▲ +9

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoSeptember 30, 2014
Ibovespa that day54,116 pts
the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months53,737 pts (-1%)
Reread the edition of September 30, 2014 →
○Five years agoApril 2010
Ibovespa 67,530 → 70,673 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 38 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 47% of the time — median -3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 52,342 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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