Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,862 · August 11, 2015 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The session ended with the Perene at 5.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state5/100Today ▲ +5
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2014
    Ibovespa that day54,116 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months53,737 pts (-1%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2010
    Ibovespa 67,530 → 70,673 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 38 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 47% of the time — median -3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  2. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  3. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  5. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  6. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 49,072 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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