Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,864 · August 13, 2015 · reconstructed essentials

The Perene Risk Index moved at a defensive extreme, now at 4. The picture stays at a defensive extreme.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state5/100Today ▾ -75
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2014
    Ibovespa that day54,116 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months53,737 pts (-1%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2010
    Ibovespa 67,530 → 70,673 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 38 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +0.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  2. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  3. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  5. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  6. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 48,010 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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