Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,899 · October 2, 2015 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. The Perene Index marked 86 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state86/100Today ▲ +34
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2014
    Ibovespa that day54,629 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months57,197 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2010
    Ibovespa 71,561 → 64,622 pts (-10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 32 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +3.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2009Perene 86
  3. December 31, 2008Perene 86
  4. April 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  5. February 29, 2008Perene 87
  6. July 31, 2023Perene 85 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 47,033 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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