Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,949 · December 16, 2015 · reconstructed essentials

The market returned to an extreme, now extreme risk-off. The Perene Index settled at 7 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state7/100Today ▾ -39
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2015
    Ibovespa that day47,651 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months50,011 pts (+5%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2015 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2011
    Ibovespa 66,575 → 57,311 pts (-14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 38 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +0.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  2. November 30, 2000Perene 7
  3. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
  4. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  6. October 31, 2023Perene 8 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 45,016 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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