Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,952 · December 21, 2015 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The picture reached the day's end intact.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state13/100Today ▲ +7

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoJanuary 31, 2015
Ibovespa that day47,651 pts
the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months50,011 pts (+5%)
Reread the edition of January 31, 2015 →
○Five years agoFebruary 2011
Ibovespa 67,383 → 55,385 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 40 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +1.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 43,200 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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