Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,028 · April 15, 2016 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 94. The environment stays anchored to an appetite extreme.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▾ -6

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite66/100Today ▾ -31

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoDecember 31, 2014
Ibovespa that day48,512 pts
the archive suggested-8% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months52,344 pts (+8%)
Reread the edition of December 31, 2014 →
○Five years agoApril 2011
Ibovespa 65,463 → 59,513 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 38 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 53,228 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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