Brazil market regime
Edition no. 4,144 · September 29, 2016 · reconstructed essentials
The market returned to an extreme, now extreme risk-off. The Perene Index marked 0 at the close.
Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.
- ●A year agoAugust 31, 2015Ibovespa that day46,626 ptsthe archive suggested-7% in 6m hist. medianwhat happened in 6 months48,665 pts (+4%)Reread the edition of August 31, 2015 →
- ○Five years agoJanuary 2011Ibovespa 66,575 → 57,311 pts (-14% in 6m) · reread →
- ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 54% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →
Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.
Observed distribution, not a forecast.
- Ibovespa: 58,351 pts
The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.
Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →
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