Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,351 · August 1, 2017 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an appetite extreme. The day's reading came in at 100.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state100/100Today → AT THE TOP
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite76/100Today ▲ +8
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2016
    Ibovespa that day56,756 pts
    what happened in 6 months64,836 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2016 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2012
    Ibovespa 65,812 → 57,369 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2022Perene 100 · defensive
  2. December 31, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2018Perene 100 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2017Perene 100 · risk-on
  5. June 30, 2016Perene 100 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2014Perene 100 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 66,516 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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