Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,420 · November 9, 2017 · reconstructed essentials

The market returned to an extreme, now capitulation territory. Today, the Perene Index closed at 2.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state2/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood68/100Today → 0
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2016
    Ibovespa that day64,925 pts
    what happened in 6 months65,526 pts (+1%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2016 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2013
    Ibovespa 53,506 → 51,847 pts (-3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 41 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +3.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  2. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  4. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  5. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  6. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 72,931 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2017-11-07all editions · Atlas2017-11-10 · next edition →