Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,452 · December 28, 2017 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The picture stays in constructive territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state74/100Today ▲ +59
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▲ +8
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day64,671 pts
    the archive suggested+20% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months66,777 pts (+3%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2012
    Ibovespa 62,550 → 45,210 pts (-28% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +5.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2013Perene 74 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2012Perene 74 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2009Perene 74
  4. March 31, 2025Perene 74 · defensive
  5. March 31, 2011Perene 74 · risk-on
  6. June 30, 2011Perene 73 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 76,402 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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