Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,598 · August 1, 2018 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The day closes with the Perene Index at 87.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state88/100Today ▲ +20
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite51/100Today ▲ +11
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoOctober 31, 2013
    Ibovespa that day54,256 pts
    the archive suggested-8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months54,053 pts (+0%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2013 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2008Perene 88
  2. November 30, 2004Perene 88
  3. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  4. June 30, 2019Perene 88 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2022Perene 88 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 79,302 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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