Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,651 · October 17, 2018 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index moved at an appetite extreme, now at 87.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state87/100Today ▾ -5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite67/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day70,835 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months86,371 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2013
    Ibovespa 54,256 → 54,053 pts (+0% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 39 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +5.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2022Perene 87 · defensive
  2. November 30, 2006Perene 87
  3. July 31, 2009Perene 88
  4. February 29, 2008Perene 87
  5. April 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 85,764 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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