Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,653 · October 19, 2018 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The Perene Index marked 85 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state85/100Today ▾ -2
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite62/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day70,835 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months86,371 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2013
    Ibovespa 54,256 → 54,053 pts (+0% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 40 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +7.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2023Perene 85 · neutral
  2. May 31, 2000Perene 85
  3. March 31, 2009Perene 86
  4. October 31, 2013Perene 84 · risk-on
  5. November 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2008Perene 86
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 84,220 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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