Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,113 · August 31, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index gave back ground and closed at 48. The market remains in neutral territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state46/100Today ▾ -53
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite35/100Today ▾ -14
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day100,626 pts
    the archive suggested+20% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months97,997 pts (-3%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2015
    Ibovespa 45,059 → 50,293 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +9.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 56% · median +6.5%
  • 6M: higher 44% · median -0.8%
  • 12M: higher 86% · median +15.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-05, 2020-01, 2017-04 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2015Perene 46 · defensive
  2. September 30, 2007Perene 46
  3. April 30, 2006Perene 46
  4. April 30, 2014Perene 46 · neutral
  5. November 30, 2019Perene 46 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2021Perene 47 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of -0.8% over six months, with 44% positive episodes (n=9).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 99,369 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,113 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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