Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition of November 30, 2019 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day closes at 46, a neutral read.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state46/100Today ▲ +46
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite44/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2018
    Ibovespa that day78,624 pts
    the archive suggested+16% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months95,953 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoMarch 2015
    Ibovespa 51,150 → 45,313 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 67% · median +6.2%
  • 6M: higher 83% · median +14.2%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +15.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-05, 2018-03, 2017-04 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2015Perene 46 · defensive
  2. September 30, 2007Perene 46
  3. April 30, 2006Perene 46
  4. August 31, 2020Perene 46 · risk-on
  5. April 30, 2014Perene 46 · neutral
  6. December 31, 2021Perene 47 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +14.2% over six months, with 83% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 108,233 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2019-11-13all editions · Observatory2019-12-05 · next edition →