Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 695 · December 31, 2021 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's mood improved. The market ended with a Perene Index of 49.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state47/100Today ▲ +37
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite25/100Today ▾ -14
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day117,365 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,801 pts (+4%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2016
    Ibovespa 59,589 → 62,470 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +8.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2008Perene 47
  2. March 31, 2007Perene 47
  3. August 31, 2012Perene 48 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2019Perene 46 · risk-on
  5. August 31, 2019Perene 48 · risk-on
  6. August 31, 2020Perene 46 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 104,822 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 695 · Regime defensivo · for 31 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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