Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,148 · October 21, 2020 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

After several flat days, the day registered movement. The market ended with a Perene Index of 94.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▾ -1

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite30/100Today ▲ +1

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoJune 30, 2019
Ibovespa that day101,340 pts
the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months118,573 pts (+17%)
Reread the edition of June 30, 2019 →
○Five years agoJune 2016
Ibovespa 51,527 → 60,227 pts (+17% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveMay 2000
Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 48 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 100,552 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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