Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 5,980 · February 29, 2024 · Regime neutro · for 60 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. The close took the Perene Index to 65. In the session's detail, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state58/100Today ▲ +8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite43/100Today → 0
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day101,882 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months115,057 pts (+13%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2019
    Ibovespa 95,584 → 100,626 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 71 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +6.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +6.3%
  • 6M: higher 83% · median +11.4%
  • 12M: higher 83% · median +26.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-01, 2018-10, 2017-05 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2005Perene 58
  2. November 30, 2025Perene 58 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2016Perene 58 · neutral
  4. June 30, 2015Perene 58 · defensive
  5. November 30, 2020Perene 58 · risk-on
  6. November 30, 2001Perene 58
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +11.4% over six months, with 83% positive episodes (n=12).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 129,020 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,980 · Regime neutro · for 60 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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