Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition of November 30, 2025 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session improved the market's mood. The Perene Index rose to 56.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state58/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite72/100Today ▲ +13
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2024
    Ibovespa that day134,981 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months125,035 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2020
    Ibovespa 108,888 → 129,787 pts (+19% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 71 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 56% · median +1%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +5%
  • 12M: higher 63% · median +12%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-11, 2016-05, 2016-09 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2005Perene 58
  2. February 29, 2024Perene 58 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2016Perene 58 · neutral
  4. June 30, 2015Perene 58 · defensive
  5. November 30, 2020Perene 58 · risk-on
  6. November 30, 2001Perene 58
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=16).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 159,072 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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