Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,181 · December 9, 2020 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. The market ended with a Perene Index of 81.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state81/100Today ▾ -14
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite67/100Today ▲ +20
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day118,573 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,937 pts (-17%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2015
    Ibovespa 48,054 → 52,764 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 47 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2006Perene 82
  2. April 30, 2009Perene 80
  3. September 30, 2022Perene 82 · defensive
  4. April 30, 2023Perene 82 · defensive
  5. October 31, 2015Perene 83 · defensive
  6. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 112,722 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2020-12-08all editions · Observatory2020-12-10 · next edition →