Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of April 30, 2023 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day's reading came in at 84.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state82/100Today ▾ -14
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite21/100Today ▲ +7
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (82) while the month regime still reads defensive.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day111,351 pts
    the archive suggested+0% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,486 pts (+1%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2017
    Ibovespa 70,835 → 86,371 pts (+22% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2022Perene 82 · defensive
  2. January 31, 2006Perene 82
  3. October 31, 2015Perene 83 · defensive
  4. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
  5. May 31, 2023Perene 84 · defensive
  6. November 30, 2003Perene 84
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 104,432 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2023-04-13all editions · Observatory2023-05-05 · next edition →