Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 5,630 · September 30, 2022 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session passed without a jolt. The day closes at 81, risk-on.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state82/100Today ▾ -17
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite53/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (82) while the month regime still reads defensive.

The market on the neutral plain.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2022
    Ibovespa that day112,388 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months103,362 pts (-8%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2017
    Ibovespa 70,835 → 86,371 pts (+22% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +4.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2006Perene 82
  2. April 30, 2023Perene 82 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2015Perene 83 · defensive
  4. January 31, 2017Perene 83 · neutral
  5. May 31, 2023Perene 84 · defensive
  6. November 30, 2003Perene 84
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 110,037 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,630 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2022-09-22all editions · Observatory2022-10-31 · next edition →