Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,316 · June 30, 2021 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now defensive territory. The Perene Index stopped at 24.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state31/100Today ▾ -57
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▾ -37
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day80,506 pts
    the archive suggested+17% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months96,582 pts (+20%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2016
    Ibovespa 59,589 → 62,470 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 80% · median +7.6%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +13.3%
  • 12M: higher 67% · median +2.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2019-09, 2018-03, 2020-11 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2012Perene 31 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2025Perene 31 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2003Perene 31
  4. December 31, 2009Perene 30
  5. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
  6. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +13.3% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 126,802 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,316 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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