Brazil market regime — 2020-04-30

In 5 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 60% of the time after 6 months (median +15.9%, central range -1.1% to 17.2%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 80% · median +8.2% · central range +3.8%…+13.8% (n=5)
• 6M: higher 60% · median +15.9% · central range -1.1%…+17.2% (n=5)
• 12M: higher 100% · median +14.4% · central range +12.7%…+25.3% (n=3)

5 independent episodes · e.g. 2017-04, 2017-06, 2018-04, 2019-05, 2019-10 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios