Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,028 · April 30, 2020 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to neutral ground. Today, the Perene Index closed at 30.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state24/100Today ▲ +20
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite16/100Today ▲ +11
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day96,054 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months104,745 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2015
    Ibovespa 47,651 → 50,011 pts (+5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +11.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +11%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +16.5%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +23.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-04, 2017-06, 2018-04 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2014Perene 24 · neutral
  2. November 30, 2009Perene 24
  3. July 31, 2014Perene 24 · defensive
  4. September 30, 2003Perene 25
  5. December 31, 2007Perene 23
  6. September 30, 2001Perene 23
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +16.5% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 80,506 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,028 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every risk-on stretch in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2020-04-03all editions · Atlas2020-05-12 · next edition →