Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,274 · April 30, 2021 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The phase stays pinned to neutral ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state56/100Today ▾ -16
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite64/100Today ▲ +5
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2020
    Ibovespa that day99,369 pts
    the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,776 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2016
    Ibovespa 53,562 → 64,308 pts (+20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +7.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2019Perene 56 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2003Perene 55
  3. March 31, 2015Perene 55 · defensive
  4. September 30, 2017Perene 57 · neutral
  5. September 30, 2013Perene 55 · risk-on
  6. September 30, 2012Perene 57 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 118,894 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,274 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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