Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,890 · October 17, 2023 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. Today, the Perene Index closed at 5.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state5/100Today → 0
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite37/100Today ▾ -1
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2022
    Ibovespa that day98,542 pts
    what happened in 6 months110,031 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2022 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2018
    Ibovespa 77,240 → 88,624 pts (+15% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 54% of the time — median +0.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  2. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  3. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  5. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  6. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 115,908 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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