Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,001 · April 1, 2024 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. Today, the Perene Index closed at 0.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state0/100Today → AT THE FLOOR

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite35/100Today ▲ +2

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoAugust 31, 2023
Ibovespa that day115,742 pts
the archive suggested+9% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months128,340 pts (+11%)
Reread the edition of August 31, 2023 →
○Five years agoFebruary 2020
Ibovespa 106,625 → 99,369 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 54% of the time — median +0.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 126,990 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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