Brazil market regime — 2024-03-31

In 13 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 77% of the time after 6 months (median +19.4%, central range 5.3% to 24.3%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 77% · median +10% · central range +0.6%…+16.1% (n=13)
• 6M: higher 77% · median +19.4% · central range +5.3%…+24.3% (n=13)
• 12M: higher 85% · median +27.5% · central range +3.3%…+36.8% (n=13)

13 independent episodes · e.g. 2017-05, 2020-02, 2018-06, 2017-07, 2018-08 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios