Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition no. 808 · March 31, 2024 · Regime neutro · for 91 days · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now a neutral read. The Perene Index eased to 65. In the index's internal move, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state63/100Today ▲ +5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite34/100Today ▾ -9
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day101,882 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months115,057 pts (+13%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2019
    Ibovespa 97,030 → 108,233 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveApril 2000
    Ibovespa 15,524 → 14,891 pts (-4% in 6m) · reread →

In 65 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +7.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 69% · median +10%
  • 6M: higher 77% · median +19.4%
  • 12M: higher 85% · median +24.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2017-05, 2020-02, 2017-07 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2023Perene 63 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2014Perene 63 · defensive
  3. February 29, 2016Perene 63 · defensive
  4. January 31, 2009Perene 64
  5. July 31, 2013Perene 62 · risk-on
  6. September 30, 2010Perene 62 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +19.4% over six months, with 77% positive episodes (n=13).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 128,106 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 808 · Regime neutro · for 91 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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