Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,023 · May 2, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's mood worsened. The Perene Index stopped at 29.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state30/100Today ▲ +22
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite24/100Today ▲ +10
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2023
    Ibovespa that day104,932 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months118,404 pts (+13%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2019
    Ibovespa 96,353 → 108,187 pts (+12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2008Perene 30
  2. December 31, 2009Perene 30
  3. August 31, 2009Perene 30
  4. July 31, 2012Perene 31 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2025Perene 31 · defensive
  6. July 31, 2003Perene 31
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 127,122 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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