Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,048 · June 7, 2024 · reconstructed essentials

The risk reading moved to a different level. The session ended with the Perene at 3.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state4/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood28/100Today → 0
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,742 pts
    the archive suggested+9% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,340 pts (+11%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2019
    Ibovespa 107,220 → 79,065 pts (-26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +3.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  2. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  3. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  4. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  5. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  6. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 120,767 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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