Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,150 · October 29, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index returned to the low end of the scale, now at 20. The phase stays pinned to defensive ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state20/100Today ▲ +5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite34/100Today ▲ +8
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,057 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,857 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2019
    Ibovespa 107,220 → 79,065 pts (-26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  2. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
  4. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  5. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
  6. August 31, 2021Perene 22 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 130,730 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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