Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,183 · December 17, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now risk-off. The Perene Index stopped at 13.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state13/100Today ▲ +13

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite67/100Today ▲ +40

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoOctober 31, 2023
Ibovespa that day113,144 pts
the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months129,210 pts (+14%)
Reread the edition of October 31, 2023 →
○Five years agoOctober 2019
Ibovespa 107,220 → 79,065 pts (-26% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 59% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 124,698 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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