Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,188 · December 26, 2024 · reconstructed essentials

The session shifted the risk reading. The Perene Index marked 1 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state1/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood33/100Today ▾ -1
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2023
    Ibovespa that day113,144 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months129,210 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2019
    Ibovespa 107,220 → 79,065 pts (-26% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  2. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  3. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
  4. August 31, 2023Perene 0 · defensive
  5. June 30, 2022Perene 0 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2021Perene 0 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 121,078 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2024-12-18all editions · Atlas2024-12-31 · next edition →