Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of May 31, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 77. The market still trades on a upbeat mood.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state77/100Today → 0
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite85/100Today ▲ +7
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (77) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJuly 31, 2020
    Ibovespa that day102,912 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months119,925 pts (+17%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2020 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 43% · median -0.4%
  • 6M: higher 57% · median +0.7%
  • 12M: higher 83% · median +4.7%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-08, 2016-03, 2022-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2017Perene 77 · neutral
  2. June 30, 2025Perene 76 · defensive
  3. December 31, 2005Perene 78
  4. May 31, 2008Perene 76
  5. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +0.7% over six months, with 57% positive episodes (n=7).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2025-05-30all editions · Observatory2025-06-02 · next edition →