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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,401 · October 31, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market's mood worsened. The day closes with the Perene Index at 60.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state69/100Today ▲ +67
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite59/100Today ▲ +7
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2024
    Ibovespa that day134,981 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months125,035 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2020
    Ibovespa 102,912 → 119,925 pts (+17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 70 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 70% of the time — median +4.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 59% · median +0.9%
  • 6M: higher 65% · median +4.5%
  • 12M: higher 75% · median +10.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-10, 2024-09, 2016-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2025Perene 69 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2010Perene 69 · risk-on
  3. August 31, 2011Perene 69 · risk-on
  4. February 28, 2009Perene 69
  5. June 30, 2004Perene 69
  6. October 31, 2006Perene 70
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +4.5% over six months, with 65% positive episodes (n=17).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 149,540 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,401 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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