Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,212 · January 31, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session ended with the Perene at 69.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state69/100Today ▲ +63
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite67/100Today ▲ +21
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day127,331 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,407 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2019
    Ibovespa 118,573 → 98,937 pts (-17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 57 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 67% of the time — median +7.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 40% · median -0.6%
  • 6M: higher 60% · median +5.2%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +10.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-06, 2022-08, 2016-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. June 30, 2010Perene 69 · risk-on
  2. August 31, 2011Perene 69 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2009Perene 69
  4. June 30, 2004Perene 69
  5. October 31, 2025Perene 69 · defensive
  6. October 31, 2006Perene 70
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5.2% over six months, with 60% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 126,135 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,212 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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