Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,427 · December 9, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index returned to the low end of the scale, now at 6.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state6/100Today ▾ -52
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite46/100Today ▾ -26
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2024
    Ibovespa that day120,125 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months139,490 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2020
    Ibovespa 95,587 → 119,710 pts (+25% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  2. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  3. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  5. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  6. November 30, 2000Perene 7
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 157,981 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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