Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,532 · May 18, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The Perene Index settled at 9 by day's end.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state9/100Today ▾ -4

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite15/100Today ▾ -6

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
○Five years agoJuly 2021
Ibovespa 122,516 → 112,161 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 176,976 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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