Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,532 · May 18, 2026 · reconstructed essentials

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The Perene Index settled at 9 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state9/100Today ▲ +8
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood15/100Today ▾ -40
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2021
    Ibovespa 122,516 → 112,161 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2021Perene 9 · defensive
  2. September 30, 2000Perene 9
  3. October 31, 2017Perene 8 · risk-on
  4. September 30, 2009Perene 10
  5. October 31, 2023Perene 8 · defensive
  6. May 31, 2017Perene 8 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 176,976 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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