Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,571 · July 13, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 43 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Market sentiment worsened. The close took the Perene Index to 91.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state91/100Today ▾ -9
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite39/100Today ▾ -3
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move79/100Today → 0
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 39) and recent move (79) diverge.

The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 59% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 52% · median +1.3%
  • 6M: higher 52% · median +3.2%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +1.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-11, 2014-03, 2011-10 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2025Perene 91 · defensive
  2. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  3. January 31, 2019Perene 92 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2014Perene 92 · defensive
  5. December 31, 2014Perene 90 · neutral
  6. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.2% over six months, with 52% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 175,739 pts, +27.8% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,571 · Regime defensive · for 43 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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