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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,578 · July 22, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 52 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now risk-off. Today, the Perene Index closed at 29.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state29/100Today → 0
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite58/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move57/100Today → 0
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day146,237 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months188,162 pts (+29%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2021
    Ibovespa 126,802 → 103,922 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 55 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +4.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 75% · median +5.8%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +8%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +12.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2024-10, 2025-02, 2016-11 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2009Perene 30
  2. June 30, 2008Perene 28
  3. January 31, 2008Perene 30
  4. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
  5. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2009Perene 30
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is calibrating and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +8% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 177,548 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,578 · Regime defensivo · for 52 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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