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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 999 · July 23, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 53 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2 (working papers with DOI). See the methodology.

The market's mood improved. The day closes with the Perene Index at 29.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state29/100Today → 0
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite58/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move57/100Today → 0
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day146,237 pts
    the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months188,162 pts (+29%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2021
    Ibovespa 126,802 → 103,922 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2009Perene 30
  2. June 30, 2008Perene 28
  3. January 31, 2008Perene 30
  4. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
  5. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2009Perene 30
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is calibrating and the intermarket neutral.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 176,724 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 999 · Regime defensivo · for 53 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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