Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,604 · August 27, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 88 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

Utilities lost relative ground. Today, the Perene Index closed at 94.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▲ +8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite28/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move73/100Today ▲ +7
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 28) and recent move (73) diverge.

Risk above the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 67 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +6.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +2.3%
  • 6M: higher 56% · median +3.2%
  • 12M: higher 60% · median +3.4%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2013-12, 2013-10, 2014-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2021Perene 94 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
  3. November 30, 2013Perene 94 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2003Perene 94
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.2% over six months, with 56% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, well below its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 175,135 pts, +26.9% in 12 months
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,604 · Regime defensive · for 88 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-08-26all editions · Observatory