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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,616 · September 15, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 107 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

in today's session. The close took the Perene Index to 78.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state78/100Today ▾ -22
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite47/100Today ▾ -17
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move53/100Today ▾ -6
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (78) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2022
    Ibovespa 112,388 → 103,362 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 58 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 50% · median +3.7%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +6.7%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +19.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2024-11, 2025-01, 2025-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2005Perene 78
  2. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  3. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2000Perene 79
  5. January 31, 2022Perene 79 · defensive
  6. May 31, 2025Perene 77 · defensive
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +6.7% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 186,503 pts, +31% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,616 · Regime defensive · for 107 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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