Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,620 · September 21, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 113 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The day brought no relief to the mood, which stayed neutral. The Perene Index settled at 87 by day's end.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state87/100Today ▲ +16
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite46/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move50/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (87) while the month regime still reads defensive.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day136,787 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months158,292 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 57 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +3.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2022Perene 87 · defensive
  2. November 30, 2006Perene 87
  3. July 31, 2009Perene 88
  4. February 29, 2008Perene 87
  5. April 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 186,596 pts, +29.5% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,620 · Regime defensive · for 113 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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