Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,621 · September 22, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 114 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The Perene Index marked 85 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state85/100Today ▾ -2
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite49/100Today ▲ +3
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move49/100Today ▾ -1
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (85) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day138,855 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 57 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2023Perene 85 · neutral
  2. May 31, 2000Perene 85
  3. March 31, 2009Perene 86
  4. October 31, 2013Perene 84 · risk-on
  5. November 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2008Perene 86
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 187,423 pts, +28.7% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,621 · Regime defensive · for 114 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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